Will the Democrats Flip the House?
Slate's mathematician on the odds of a Democratic victory.
By Jordan Ellenberg
Take a look at the analysis. It's pretty interesting. If you just want his nitty gritty on it though:
"If you're a Democrat, you've got every right to be hopeful this fall. But if somebody gives you the chance to bet on the GOP, get your wallet out."
Basically he plots the chance of it happening as being between 15-50%.