In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.
This is a pretty unbelievable turn of events. Not that the polls haven't started reversing in McCain's favor ever since the republican convention ended but the magnitude is astounding. Both the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls show that not only did McCain completely erase Obama's bounce from the DNC convention, but he gained a 2-3 points on top of that.
Upon seeing the USA Today / Gallup poll, I immediately went over to Daily Kos to watch the hippies freak out. Man, their bitter, bitter tears taste like candy. For a while I really was sort of ambivalent about this election. There were benefits to an Obama win after all. For one, it might get Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton to shut the fuck up. I figured that might be a pretty big incentive right there. There was also the outside possibility that it might just throw some water on the left's favorite political bludgeon and better race relations. In the end, I just can't help myself. The thought of getting to see all those hippies cry their eyes out on election night is too much for me. It's like the sweetest drug imaginable, the crack cocaine of my existence, and I could really use another hit. The more they whine in stupefied incomprehension about how it's surely not possible they could have lost, the more I want to see it happen. Hell, maybe a few of them will actually make good on those threats to leave the country stretching back from 2000.
Still, I know that the 10 point lead is likely to be an outlier. I have no doubt that McCain has caught up and maybe is even slightly in the lead, but it's nowhere near 10 points. I figure he has a good shot to win as long as he's no more than 1.5-2.0 points down on election day. We all know how the exit polls and crap skew democratic and I have no doubt that that spread can be overcome. Not to mention the possibility of a Bradley effect might widen that margin to 2.5. Seriously, is it any wonder that some people might be afraid to tell pollsters they're not going to vote for the Black guy when so many pundits and nutjobs have put forth the asinine theory that the only reason to not vote for Obama is because you're a howling racist? The more that the hippies keep pushing that ridiculous argument, the more skewed the polls are going to be in Obama's favor. It'll all reverse in the voting booth though and kick him in the ass.
According to the Gallup poll, republicans have also closed the enthusiasm gap which had gaped as wide as 20 points. I doubt it's for the same reason as other McCain supporters, but I'm definitely enthused now.
Edited to add:
Every single one of the _7_ national polls released today on RCP now shows either a tied race or a McCain lead. It looks like there's clear consensus that Obama has taken a significant dip.